al that matters is what dean says...
The tropical Atlantic is very busy to start the month of September. Tropical cyclone Danielle passed by 1375 miles east of Florida last Saturday. Unfortunately, the quality of Danielle’s moderate-sized swell was watered down by the persistent onshore flow earlier in the work week. NOW FOR THE GREAT NEWS: WE ARE IN FOR A OVERHEAD to 2X OVERHEAD (size with quality, drive a VW bus through the tube) HURRICANE GROUND SWELL THURSDAY! The peak of Earls’s swell will be accompanied by favorable offshore wind. Earl’s forecast track, much closer to Florida’s East coast than Danielle, places him as a catagory 4 Major Hurricane (GENERATING SEAS UP TO 45 FEET OFFSHORE!!) within 350 miles of Florida’s east coast late Wednesday/early Thursday. EARL WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY EPIC SWELL PEAKING IN SIZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, lingering nicely into Friday with offshore winds forecast well into the afternoon. I don’t get this excited too often, but given the developing weather scenario EARL’S CLOSE PROXIMITY GROUND SWELL WILL MAKE THURSDAY and FRIDAY DAYS TO REMEMBER, with the largest, quality surf we have seen in many years.
WEDNESDAY: Wind backing ENE/NE increasing to 9-18 mph with waves starting the morning at 2-3′, building steadily through the day to 3-5′ (occ + late) in moderate period NE wind swell and increasing ESE hurricane ground swell. The East Bahama buoy observations very early Wednesday morning documented its brush with major Hurricane Earl:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046
THURSDAY: Wind starting out sideoffshore from the NNW 6-16 mph, backing more offshore from the NW during the day with breaking wave size up dramatically through the morning to 5-8′ (occ 2X overhead bombs by mid-afternoon) in ESE/E hurricane ground swell.
FRIDAY: Wind WSW/SW 5-15 mph through the morning into early afternoon with waves “dropping” in size to 3-occ 5′ (a few larger bombs still possible into early afternoon) in diminishing ENE/NE Hurricane Earl ground swell. An S/SE sea breeze will ripple to bump up surface conditions as the afternoon progresses.
SATURDAY: Wind W/WNW 5-13 mph through the morning, shifting to N/NE in the afternoon with waves dropping (like a rock) down to 1.5-occ 2.5′ in residual/mixed NE/E swell.
SUNDAY: Wind WSW/SW 5-12 mph, shifting to east by early afternoon with waves 1-2′ (occ +) in mixed direction swell.