SHORT RANGE
ALL EYES EAST: NEAR FLAT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF FLORENCE TRACKS AS EXPECTED POSSIBLE 5-6 FT SURF LATE SUNDAY BUILDING TO 6-7 FT MONDAY AM AT EXPOSED BREAKS.
CONDITIONS
CALM AND CLEAN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNINGS. THEN A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW (5 KTS EARLY) AS FLORENCE STARTS HAVING MINOR EFFECTS LOCALLY LATER SATURDAY UP TO 5-10 KTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS, THEN ON THE INCREASE (BUT NOT TOO MUCH).
LONG RANGE
Tropical Storm Florence was tracking towards the Windwards Wednesday with a broad fetch of 40-45 kt east winds aimed well at the Bahamas and Central Florida. Seas to 19 ft. Swell generation potential on the increase. Florence to be upgraded to hurricane status Friday moving 360 nmiles north of Windwards with winds 70-80 kts and the swell angle aimed well at Central Florida. Still 19 ft seas to be tracking up into the Central Fla swell window. By Sunday Florence theoretically to be peaking out positioned north of Haiti and east of West Palm Beach with sustained winds 90-100 kts and turning to the north, with fetch swinging away from the coast. Swell from previous days fetch arriving late and on the increase. Seas to 20 ft. The models suggest Florence to hold strength while tracking north inside of Bermuda nudging up to the Northeast coast by Tuesday (9/12) but not moving onshore. A solid fetch of 50 kts winds to be aimed back south towards Florida, likely continuing swell generation though small than previous days. No strong high pressure is modeled to the north to stop it suggesting a turn to the northeast followed by a rapidly track towards Europe. This all remains a long shot though the latest satellite image looks slightly better than 24 hours ago. Monitor this system closely.