SWELL SCHEDULE
Wednesday the 12th will be the peak of the incoming NW swell with DOH+ conditions at west facing breaks. Some southern hemi will also be in the mix, but the wrap alone from the NW will be enough to put south facing breaks in at least head high surf.
Thursday the 13th the NW should back down to head high or so as the southern hemi remains at chest high.
Friday the 14th into Saturday the 15th we could see a good amount of NW ground swell from a system coming at us from the Western Pacific. Models though favor this one pushing a hefty, soggy trough over our area, resulting in, at the very least, much cooler air temps, AM gloom, and earlier than normal onshore winds. This could also bring some precipitation as well. And, as with any proximal low, we could see quite a bit of wind swell too. Currently, this storm is sitting south of the Aleutians with 35+ foot seas. The long range models show this making landfall on the Oregon coast in a few days with at least 20-foot seas. For California, this storm equates to ground swell Saturday with plenty of wind swell Saturday into Sunday. The angle will be mostly 290 with the ground swell periods running 14-16 seconds. Size at west facing breaks on Friday should run DOH with pluses running 15 feet on the face. South facing breaks can expect overhead wrap. The ETA for this so far is for early morning north of San Simeon, by noon farther south. Winds and weather could cause some problems though, making this a less than pretty swell. Depending on how the low associated with this system tracks over our area, we could even see some hail. Since the wind swell portion and conditions are still predicated on the long-range models, I'll need a couple more days to firm up that part of the forecast.
If all goes as planned, then NW wind/ground swell should keep west facing breaks in DOH surf Sunday, backing down Monday the 17th and even more Tuesday the 18th.
Looking out farther on the horizon, the 84h+ northern hemisphere models show something spinning out of the Bering Sea to bring us some NW around the 19th or 20th. This though isn't looking impressive at the moment.
My next report is scheduled for Thursday. Until then, be safe, smile in the line-up, and have a great week!
opworm:
